NASA Chief Scientist Predicts Alberta’s Future

Visitor offers suggestions on best bets for future investment

January 19, 2009 - Edmonton

Many of us may be wondering about what the near future holds for the economy.

However some people in the province are tasked with looking out for the long term sustainability of our economy. They recently received some advice from a very highly placed expert – NASA’s Chief Scientist from its Langley Research Centre.

When Dennis Bushnell speaks, his words carry the weight of a world’s worth of research.  So his thoughts demand attention – especially when it comes to the implications those opinions hold for Alberta's economy.

Dennis Bushnell’s words forebode both challenges and opportunities for the province in the coming 30 years.  His words did not fall on deaf ears during his recent two-day visit to Edmonton, at the invitation of the Alberta Research Council’s Chair of Foresight, Axel Meisen.  Key government, research and industry stakeholders benefited from Bushnell’s synopsis of the world’s top research. His visit was intended to provoke and complement Alberta’s strategic thinking for research and help ARC position for a bright future.

Bushnell says the latest science clearly spells out if the world continues to increase carbon dioxide emissions, within 10 years the world’s ecosystem will likely pass the point of no return, unleashing a chain reaction that could transform earth’s atmosphere and ocean ecology dramatically by 2100.  That has helped trigger a search for alternative forms of energy.

In Bushnell’s view, fossil fuels will be replaced by renewable fuels in the decades ahead due to environmental concerns and economics. He states rising demand for petroleum (especially in emerging markets such as China and India) will soon outstrip global supply, thereby sharply increasing petroleum prices; renewable forms of energy, currently under development, will become increasingly competitive and affordable.

"Alberta may be sitting on lots of oil but there are other countries that are not and they are racing to find renewable alternatives.  Fossil fuels will be obsolete before you know it and then what have you got?"  Bushnell adds all the fossil fuel energy potential in the world is equal to only 5% of the energy potential of major renewable energy options.

Bushnell also predicts warmer, drier weather patterns will wither the province’s existing forms of agriculture and forestry as water becomes increasingly scarce.

With those pressures on the drivers of Alberta's economy, the time for action has never been more important, Bushnell advises.

"Until now, Alberta has done very well in an industrial economy – exploiting its natural resources of carbon-based energy, water and agriculture," Bushnell concludes. He challenged his audience, saying, "We are now in an economy where wealth is created by inventions instead of by resources.  Now, it doesn’t matter what’s in the ground.  What matters is what’s in your head."

The silver lining for Alberta?  Bushnell points out that Alberta is uniquely poised to take a lead in the future world economy.  He ranks Alberta in the top five jurisdictions in the world in the area of foresight – consciously looking ahead 20 to 30 years and strategically planning to take advantage of future trends for the benefit of the population.

"Whatever you people have got in Alberta, I wish you would infect the rest of the world with it," Bushnell booms.  "You may be small but you are disproportionately huge intellectually.  Your focus on looking ahead and positioning yourselves for future success is astounding."  He says even through current economic upheavals, Alberta’s fossil fuels will provide short-term income that can be leveraged to build job opportunities for the future when oil is no longer king.

"Knowing that you’re about to be shot at dawn has a way of sharpening the mind and getting you past your natural resistance to change."  Bushnell adds that’s a hefty incentive for Alberta leaders to lay the groundwork to ensure a prosperous and sustainable economy for the long term.

After studying Alberta’s situation, Bushnell suggests the province consider investing in a number of key sectors that have huge market potential.  He says Alberta could very easily lead the world in on-line virtual education programming. "In order to develop the highly-intellectual population that will invent wealth in this new world economy, you’re going to have to create virtually free, high-level education anyways.  If you jump to the lead in that sector, you simply expand your reach through the rest of the world."  The same principle goes for a potential Alberta dominance in tele-medicine, based upon the imminent introduction of full-sensory virtual reality technology that Bushnell has witnessed under development.

In the area of energy generation, Bushnell says fully sustaining "distributed generation" systems already exist to allow individual homes and buildings to be completely energy self-sufficient.  He notes that Denmark already gets 52% of its power from this type of system, and the trend is growing, but production capacity has not yet caught up.

"The market for this is tremendous. The whole world has to go to renewables very soon, if for no other reason than economics," Bushnell explains. "Alberta should ask itself what products are required to supply this demand and are those products going to be labelled ‘made in Alberta, Canada.’?"

In the areas of Water Management and Land Reclamation, again Bushnell notes, some tremendous work is being done by the Alberta Research Council and others.  While establishing itself as a world leader in those sectors, Bushnell predicts Alberta can then market its technologies, skills and expertise to the rest of the world.

He feels there is a vacuum of global leaders – thereby presenting opportunities – in the areas of education programs for quantum science and engineering, preventative nutritionally-based medicine training and adaptations of personal homes for a better experience.

"More and more people will be working from their homes and interacting with colleagues or clients in virtual reality settings," Bushnell predicts.  "Therefore, I believe there are great opportunities to enrich our living spaces for better experiences, mentally and physically."

The province’s foresight community and leaders welcome the comments and benefit of Bushnell’s extensive research in order to further ponder these challenges and the inherent opportunities that lie within each.

If you wish to further discuss these or any other thoughts on foresight, feel free to contact Axel Meisen, ARC's Chair of Foresight at axel.meisen@arc.ab.ca.

-30-
For more information, contact:

Bonni Clark
Corporate Relations
Alberta Research Council
(780) 450-5277 direct
(780) 722-8672 cell
Bonni.clark@arc.ab.ca